Who Will Win the Economics Nobel?

Tomorrow morning will see the announcement of the winner(s) of the 2013 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, colloquially known as the Nobel Prize in Economics.

Thomson Reuters has a tradition of offering predictions as to who will take home the Economics Prize, as well as the Nobels in Medicine, Chemistry, and Physics (for whatever reason they don’t try their hand at guessing Literature and Peace). Their performance this year was hardly stellar – the only correct prediction was for Physics, which was awarded to Francois Englert and Peter Higgs last week for their own correct prediction about the existence of the Higgs Boson – so perhaps we shouldn’t put too much stock in their forecasting ability.

In any case, Reuters identifies three groups of economists as possible recipients: MIT’s Joshua Angrist, Berkeley’s David Card, and Princeton’s Alan Krueger for their work in empirical microeconomics; Oxford’s David Hendry, Cambridge’s M. Hashem Pesaran, and Yale’s Peter Phillips for their work in time series analysis; and Chicago Booth’s Sam Peltzman and Chicago Law’s Richard Posner for their work in the economic theory of regulation.

The New York TimesEconomix blog and the Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics also weigh in with a host of other guesses. Marginal Revolution’s Tyler Cowen notes that his “personal prediction (which never once has been correct, at least not in the proper year) is for an early ‘shock’ prize to Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer…” The second, MIT’s Esther Duflo, is a winner of the American Economic Association’s John Bates Clark Medal, many former recipients of which have ultimately gone on to become Nobel laureates.

My own bet is for a prize in applied micro or econometrics, given that fields such as game theory and macro have been recognized multiple times in the last several years. If it’s the former, then I’ll follow Reuters’ lead in betting on Card and Krueger. If the latter, then I think Real Time Economics is justified in claiming that Chicago’s Lars Hansen, who developed the technique known as the “generalized method of moments”, “is seen by many as a shoo-in.”

Update: I got one! (Correct, that is. I did not win one myself.)

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